The Great Inflation Debate

The great investment debate of today is about the future course of inflation. Economists and investors are divided into the “inflationistas” and “deflationistas.” The former, “Team Permanent,” see the recent surge in inflation as indicative of a regime change towards a world of supply scarcity and higher prices.; the latter, “Team Transitory,” believe we are stuck in a low growth and demand-constrained environment where prices always fall unless monetary authorities intervene.

Until recently, the “deflationistas” were triumphant. Fears that the money printing and fiscal expansion that followed the Great Financial Crisis would spark inflation never materialized. The past ten years have been marked by low inflation and a strong dollar despite zero bound nominal interest rates. The core argument of the “Deflationistas,” as expressed by economist luminaries such as Paul Krugman and former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, is that inflation is repressed by declining growth in the working age population. This phenomenon, sometimes called “secular stagnation” or also “the global savings glut” has supposedly  brought down the “natural rate of interest” which preserves price stability.

Deflation has been the norm for so long that it is understandable that most people assume that it  will persist.

Since the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 15% in the spring of 1980 it has been on a persistent downward trajectory. This has been dubbed “The Great Moderation” by Bernanke  who attributed this result to the masterful management of the Fed and  its 400 economists.

The contribution of the Fed to the deflation process is difficult to confirm because of the various other factors that have concurrently impacted prices over the period. These are well known, but we list them below:

  1. The collapse in commodity prices. Energy prices fell by 80% during the 1980s and remained low until 2002. Following the GFC, the U.S. shale revolution drove energy costs in the U.S. to near record lows.
  2. The baby boom labor expansion which was magnified by a huge increase of the female participation rate in the labor force, and also by record levels of legal and illegal immigration.
  3. The rise of China under Deng (1982) and the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989), which added nearly a billion low-cost workers to the global economy. China’s debt-fueled mercantilist industrial promotion policies also dramatically increased global production capacity for a wide variety of industrial goods.
  4. Hyper-globalization, driven by declining transportation and communication costs and chronic U.S. current account deficits. Outsourcing has been highly deflationary, lowering labor costs of goods and putting downward pressure on domestic wages.
  5. Hyper-financialization, driven by the Washington Consensus for open global capital and labor markets.
  6. The Reagan-Thatcher Neoliberal Revolution which drove prices down through deregulation, the defenestration of labor unions and lower taxes.
  7. Lax anti-trust policy which incentivized corporate concentration . This was further accentuated by the emergence of  “winner-take-all” network-driven technology business models.
  8. Digitalization of consumption through technology.

Over this long 40-year deflationary period, different forces have dominated at different times. For example, in the 80s declining commodity prices, deregulation and abundant labor were the dominating forces. However, in the 00s, the “China supply shock” (including cheap Chinese labor) and hyper-financialization were the dominant forces, overwhelming the temporary surge in commodity prices.

Some of these deflationary forces are still operative today. Foremost, technology continues to be deflationary as digitalization spreads wider (entertainment, office work, medicine, etc…) and communications facilitate offshoring (eg. IT in Bangalore). Supposedly accelerating technological disruption is now the key argument of many deflationistas (e.g. Cathie Wood of Ark Investments), even though over the past decades this was probably of secondary importance to the overall deflationary trend.

There is also a major new source of deflation, which is the high levels of debt accumulated around the world and, consequently, the collapse in “money velocity” (the creation of money through commercial bank lending). Though this is a controversial topic with economists, there are reasons to believe that the very high levels of debt around the world repress future economic growth. This is manifested by the decline in the money expansion created by bank lending over the past decades, and it explains why quantitative easing has had little impact on consumer prices. It may well be that debt levels are so high that any effort to raise real interest rates by central banks will tank economies. This view, pushed by the investor Ray Dalio, assumes that we have reached the peak of a long-term debt cycle.

On the other hand, there are new inflationary forces and some of the powerful deflationary forces of recent decades may have lost steam. These inflationary  factors can be listed as follows:

  • Commodity prices have surged recently and may continue to rise because of underinvestment caused by regulations and ESG lobbying. The shale revolution in the U.S. may have peaked out and may no longer provide a source of low-cost marginal production.
  • Labor in developed countries is now tight because of ageing populations, a decline in female participation rates and anti-immigration policies. The working age populations in most developed countries and in China are now in steep decline which should increase the cost of labor if productivity does not compensate.
  • Hyperglobalization may be under threat as reliance on China and other Asian manufacturing hubs is increasingly seen as irresponsible in an increasingly fraught geopolitical environment.
  • Hyperfinancialization is under question as unfettered capital flows have proven to be highly disruptive for both the United States and most emerging markets. Over this long deflationary period, chronic current account deficits have made the U.S. a net debtor to the world with a Net International Financial position going from positive 10% of GDP in 1981 to negative 86% of GDP in 2021.
  • The neoliberal revolution may have exhausted itself. Labor unions are showing signs of making a comeback and tax cuts have resulted in chronic deficits and record debt levels. Also, there is a growing realization that without government interference the U.S stands to lose jobs and stature to countries which actively support industries through subsidies and mercantilist policies (e.g. semiconductor manufacturing which may soon disappear from the U.S. unless the government supports it). Moreover, there are some signs of a resurgence in anti-trust efforts from Washington.

The debate between the “deflationistas” and the “inflationistas” will not be settled anytime soon. There are simply too many moving pieces and competitive forces at work to have high conviction now. Nevertheless, for the first time in decades the Fed may no longer have the wind at its back and the luxury to print trillions of dollars to support economic activity and financial markets. If the Fed is faced  with the choice between supporting the economy and financial markets or controlling inflation, political pressures will guide its decisions. In a world of populist politics this may mean higher prices in exchange for more government spending and higher wages.

The charts below show the inflation story in pictures.

Deflation has been a global trend since the 1980s.

But has also recently has been on the rise everywhere.

 

Commodity prices (relative to inflation) were extremely deflationary between 1980-2000 and 2012-2020, but are also rising sharply now.

 

The impact of deregulation on freight rail  rates.

The defenestration of labor unions.

 

Outsourcing has shifted share of GDP from workers to corporations.

The rate of growth of the working age population has collapsed.

Money velocity has collapsed as debt levels increase.

 

 

 

Another Emerging Markets Debt Crisis?

After ten years of extraordinary accommodative monetary policy, marked by a 2020 peak of $19 trillion in negative yielding debt, it is understandable that debt levels have grown to record high levels. Markets have been complacent about this accumulation of debt because of low servicing costs and persistent deflationary trends. However, recent developments that point to resurging inflation are now forcing central banks to seriously consider restrictive monetary policies, including positive real rates, that would lead to much higher servicing costs for highly leveraged governments, households and corporations. This is worrisome for emerging markets which do not tend to fare well during tightening cycles occurring after long periods of debt accumulation.

As the following chart from the Financial Times shows, developing countries debt levels are at record levels and have grown precipitously since the Great Financial Crisis. The total debt to GDP ratio for developing markets has more than doubled since the GFC.

 

The following chart shows the evolution since the GFC in more detail for EM countries. Debt  to GDP ratios  have nearly doubled for total debt as well as for government, household and corporate debt. These ratios would be even worse if not for the extraordinary policies of financial repression and negative real interest rates pursued in 2021, as central banks allowed inflation to surge.

 

Debt levels of many key EM countries, shown in the chart below, are now at levels which leave them highly vulnerable to economic stagnation and financial crisis. Asian EM countries (with the exception of Indonesia) and Chile and Brazil are all at very high levels in absolute terms and relative to their histories. China (considering SOE debt and overstatement of GDP), India (considering overstatement of GDP),  Brazil and Argentina all have levels of government debt close to 100%, a level which is considered highly debilitating by students of debt dynamics. China, given its capital controls and state-controlled banking system, may have the means to avoid financial disruptions but that is less true for the others, particularly for Latin American countries which have a history of rapid and profound shifts in capital flows and currently face strong capital flight from their own citizens.

 

The pace of increase in debt levels in recent years is also cause for concern. The chart below shows the increase in debt to GDP ratios over the past five years and during 2021.  Historical precedents point to countries facing high risk of debt-related crisis following a surge of their debt to GDP ratio  of 20% or more over a 5-year period. Last year was a year of acute financial repression by most central banks, so it is no surprise that debt levels came down for most countries. We can see the positive impact that this had for Brazil, in the next chart which shows how interest rates lagged inflation. Unfortunately, as the Scotiabank chart projection below shows, this effect will reverse in 2023, leading to high real rates.

Below, we focus on several key EM countries, each with its own vulnerabilities.

China

Debt levels have more than doubled since the GFC. If we assume that GDP figures need to be adjusted downwards by 20-25% to make them comparable to other countries, then debt ratios could be approaching 350%. Government debt has more than doubled over this period, and if we consider that almost all corporate debt is held by SOEs, then government debt would be well above 100%. The issue in China is not government solvency as the state has all the tools to keep the financial system operating smoothly. Rather, the vulnerability is that very high debt levels are choking the economy, and that the economy relies on unproductive debt-fueled growth to sustain growth. The consequence is that future growth levels can be expected to be low.

Brazil

Brazil’s debt levels are much too high for the economy to function properly and condemn the economy to low growth unless a serious fiscal reform or a productivity miracle occurs. Brazilian debt levels are at record high levels and they have risen by 60%  since the GFC, a period during which growth and investments have been very poor. The government debt ratio has risen by 50%, to finance current spending, while corporate debt  has risen by 70% and household debt has doubled. Government debt will likely reach 100% over the next year, which is much too high for a country with a structural deficit and which suffers from capital flight and political turmoil. Unlike in China, Brazil’s banks are private and managed very conservatively.

Korea

Kore’s debt ratio has risen by 50% since the GFC and is now one of the highest in the world. The government debt ratio has doubled over this period but remains at reasonable levels, and corporate debt has risen by 30%. Household debt has risen by 50% to 107% of GDP, an exceptional level, even higher than that of the consumption-happy United States. These very high debt levels would become a significant burden for the economy if interest rates rise, and could be a source of popular unrest with political consequences.

The Fed’s decade-long experiment in free money now may be at its end, leaving behind mountains of debt everywhere. Already weakened by the pandemic, political tensions and slowing growth, many emerging markets will add higher interest bills to their woes.

Global Growth Prospects

The World Bank has significantly reduced its growth outlook for 2022 and is  concerned that we may be facing “global stagflation.”  The World Bank’s “Global Economic Prospects June 2022″ report   highlights  the vulnerability of lower income economies in the current environment of lower growth and rising food and energy prices. Nevertheless, the bank  retains a relatively sanguine view, as it sees a persistently vibrant U.S. economy and declining commodity prices in both 2023 and 2024.

The chart below resumes the World Bank’s latest real GDP forecasts for emerging market economies  and several  important frontier markets (Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam.) The bank’s forecast provides growth estimates through 2024. The chart ranks countries in terms of their 3-year average real GDP growth for the 2022-2024 period. The two columns on the right show the changes since the bank’s prior forecast six months ago which was made prior to the Ukraine invasion and the COVID lockdowns in China. Given its mandate, the bank tends to be “politically correct” in its forecasts. Historically, this has resulted in the bank usually accepting China’s official targets, and in this case it may explain the optimistic forecast for the U.S.  The relatively low economic cost to Russia  for the invasion of Ukraine (well below most other estimates) is difficult to explain.

As we have come to expect, most of the world’s growth will come from Asia where the bank expects stellar GDP growth in India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. This kind of growth is probably not priced in for the stock markets of Indonesia and the Philippines.  Egypt’s high expected growth is also surprising good news for this normally struggling economy and should be supportive of  higher asset prices. Though Malaysia’s expected growth is not as stellar, stock prices there are very low and also provide good prospects.

Also, in what has become the  “new normal,” growth prospects in Latin America and South Africa are dismal. Chile and Brazil are at the bottom of the chart, and would be last if not for the dramatic woes inflicted by Putin on Russia. In the case of both Chile and Brazil these GDP forecasts are likely optimistic if Chile’s new constitution is approved as currently expected and if Lula wins the election in Brazil as is also the most likely scenario. The one  Latin American exception — Colombia — is a big if, as the World Bank’s forecast is certainly wildly optimistic should the former guerilla fighter Gustavo Petro win the election on June 19. As in the case of Chile, Colombia faces capital flight and low investments for the foreseeable future.

O Fiasco Imobiliário do Conde de Ipanema

História da Família Ipanema de Moreira

Há duas ruas no Rio de Janeiro que comemoram a passagem de José Antonio Moreira. Uma é a Rua Barão de Ipanema no bairro da Praia de Copacabana e a outra, a Rua Conde de Ipanema na vizinha Praia de Ipanema. Pouco se escreveu sobre esse influente empresário e financista brasileiro da colônia portuguesa de Dom João VI e do império de Dom Pedro I e Dom Pedro II. Como ele é meu antepassado, montei uma biografia curta e resumida baseada em documentos públicos e arquivos familiares. Sua história reflete a modernização do Brasil no século 19 – de uma economia de plantação escravagista para uma nação moderna em industrialização. É também uma história da má fase de  especulação imobiliária e a dissipação de riqueza por descendentes ociosos.

A trilha da família Ipanema de Moreira começa na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, no final do século XVIII. José Antonio Moreira, futuro Conde de Ipanema, nasceu em São Paulo, em 23 de outubro de 1797, filho de José Antonio Moreira (Pai) e D. Ana Joaquina de Jesus. A família era de origem nobre, do Distrito de Braga no norte de Portugal. Moreira era um nome comum em Portugal, com o significado de amoreira, por vezes associado à comunidade dos “conversos” (conversão forçada de judeus à igreja católica).

José Antonio Moreira (pai) era um próspero comerciante de São Paulo com ligações estreitas com a administração colonial. Desempenhou um papel fundamental no desenvolvimento do primeiro empreendimento industrial moderno do Brasil, a siderúrgica de Ipanema (Fundição Ipanema).

A invasão de Portugal por Napoleão fez com que a corte portuguesa de Dom João VI fugisse para o Rio de Janeiro em 1808. Dom João VI eliminou imediatamente todas as restrições mercantilistas existentes à manufatura domestica e apoiou ativamente a autossuficiência industrial. A fundição de ferro foi considerada de alta prioridade, e uma área com depósitos de ferro nas proximidades da cidade de  São Paulo foi escolhida como o local para o desenvolvimento.

A existência de jazidas de minério de ferro na Serra de Ipanema em uma área conhecida como Fazenda Ipanema, próxima à vila de Iperó, 125 km ao noroeste  da cidade de São Paulo, era conhecida desde os primórdios da colonização portuguesa. O local escolhido para a fundição de ferro localizava-se no rio Ipanema, afluente do rio Sorocaba, e era cercado por matas que poderiam ser usadas como combustível para a fundição. A área já havia sido habitada por índios tupis, que a batizaram de “Ipanema”, em referência a um rio que ali nasce. Ipanema significa “água estagnada ou estéril” em tupi-guarani.

A sociedade foi constituída por Carta Régia em 4 de dezembro de 1810 como sociedade  acionista  de economia mista, com 13 ações pertencentes à Coroa portuguesa e 47 a acionistas  privados, empresários com ligações à corte. José Antonio foi um investidor fundador, e provavelmente representava os interesses da coroa.  O projeto era de grande interesse para Dom João IV, que contou com o apoio técnico de especialistas suecos e alemães, e sabe-se que visitou a fábrica em várias ocasiões.

A Serralheria da Fazenda Ipanema, conhecida como Real Fábrica de Ferro de São João de Ipanema, fundiu seu primeiro ferro em 1816 e funcionou até 1895. Abaixo, uma foto de 1890.

 

O empreendimento, que pode ser considerado o primeiro empreendimento industrial moderno do Brasil, incluiu uma barragem e uma ferrovia de 4 km ligando as jazidas de minério de ferro à usina. A área é agora um parque nacional e uma atração turística popular. As estruturas do moinho estão intactas, como mostram as fotos abaixo, e podem ser visitadas pelo público.

A localização geográfica do local é mostrada nos mapas abaixo.

José Antonio Moreira, tanto o pai  como o filho, se envolveram ativamente na Fundação Ipanema. O futuro Conde de Ipanema, referido daqui em diante como José Antonio Moreira, se envolveu na  Fundação Ipanema desde cedo e permaneceria ligado aos empreendimentos industriais da metalurgia na primeira onda de industrialização do Brasil durante o regime imperial.

Desde a época da Fundação Ipanema, a família Moreira manteve-se intimamente ligada à corte imperial do Rio de Janeiro. No início da década de 1820, José Antonio Moreira estabeleceu-se no Rio de Janeiro, onde em 1823 casou-se com D. Laurinda Rosa Ferreira dos Santos, filha de um comerciante português do Porto. Ela nasceu no Rio de Janeiro em 1808 e faleceu em Bruxelas em 1881. Tiveram  seis filhos: José Antonio Moreira Filho, o futuro 2º Barão de Ipanema (1830-1899); João Antonio Moreira (1831-1900); Joaquim José Moreira (1832-?); Manoel Antônio Moreira (1833-?); Laurinda Rosa Moreira (1837-1920); Mariana Rosa Moreira (1842-?) e Francisco Antônio Moreira (1845-1930). Francisco Antonio Moreira é meu tataravô.

José Antonio casou-se com uma das famílias mais ricas do Rio de Janeiro imperial. Seu sogro era José Ferreira dos Santos, um comerciante de grande destaque. Uma pesquisa recente do professor de história da UCLA William Summerhill revela que José Ferreira dos Santos foi membro da Junta Administrativa da Caixa de Amortização de 1840 a 1846. Os membros desta comissão parlamentar – “capitalistas nacionais… e os maiores detentores da dívida nacional” – supervisionaram as operações do Tesouro para garantir o pagamento das obrigações da dívida soberana. O próprio José Antonio fez parte desta comissão de 1859-1869. Durante esse longo período de prosperidade sob o imperador Dom Pedro II, tanto José Antonio quanto seu sogro estavam entre os maiores detentores de títulos do governo, as chamadas “apólices”, no que era um mercado altamente concentrado. (Summerhill fornece um relato fascinante das finanças do Império em seu livro Revolução Inglória. Esse período prolongado é único na história brasileira pela credibilidade impecável do estado brasileiro.)

O sucesso de José Antonio como empresário e financista e seu serviço à Corte Imperial foram reconhecidos em inúmeras ocasiões com as mais altas condecorações : Comendador da Imperial Ordem de Cristo e Dignitário da Imperial Ordem da Rosa, 1845; Baronato de Ipanema,1847; Grandezas de Barão de Ipanema, 1849; Viscondado com Grandeza de Ipanema, 1854; e Conde de Ipanema, 1868. A associação de José Antonio com a Siderurgia e Metalurgia de Ipanema fica clara pela escolha do nome Ipanema. (Títulos imperiais de nobreza eram concedidos com base no mérito e serviço à coroa e, geralmente, não eram hereditários.)

Os escudos heráldicos dos Moreiras portugueses e dos Ipanemas brasileiros estão ilustrados abaixo. Repare que ambos os escudos têm a cruz florida, que em Portugal era o símbolo dos Cavaleiros de São Bento de Aviz, ordem de cavalaria fundada em 1146. O escudo de Ipanema também tem uma linha azul com cinco estrelas (representando o Rio Ipanema) e um Caduceu de Hermes (que representa a sabedoria).

Em 1844, durante o reinado de D. Pedro II (1831-89), o Brasil adotou políticas de promoção da industrialização e substituição de importações de produtos manufaturados, incluindo tarifas rígidas de até 60% sobre as importações. Antes dessa reforma, o país dependia amplamente de importações britânicas. A mudança de política resultou na primeira onda de industrialização do Brasil, que teve como principal empresário Irineu Evangelista de Sousa (Visconde de Mauá). José Antonio Moreira foi um dos primeiros sócios de investimentos e conselheiro do Visconde de Mauá. Evidentemente, José Antonio fez bom uso de suas conexões com a corte imperial  e seu expertise em metalurgia nesse período, e coinvestiu com o Visconde de Mauá em empreendimentos siderúrgicos, estaleiros, bancários, de barcos a vapor e ferroviários.

José Antonio Moreira foi o primeiro presidente do Banco do Brasil, um empreendimento de Visconde de Mauá, que foi crucialmente importante no financiamento da industrialização inicial do Brasil e que ainda hoje, desempenha um papel vital na economia brasileira. Curiosamente, nos documentos de afretamento da fundação do Banco do Brasil, José Antonio é descrito como um “empresário nacional envolvido no negócio de navios e generos nacionais”.

José Antonio também fez parcerias comerciais com investidores estrangeiros, incluindo empresas siderúrgicas na Bélgica. A partir de meados da década de 1850 José Antonio se envolveu com Bruxelas, e em 1860 sua esposa, D. Laurinda Rosa Ferreira dos Santos, passa a residir lá. A partir desta época, quatro de seus seis filhos se estabelecem em Bruxelas: Manoel Antonio, Mariana Rosa, Laurinda Rosa e Francisco Antonio Moreira. Manoel permanece em Bruxelas, onde serve como cônsul geral do Brasil, e seu filho, Alfredo de Barros Moreira, se torna o primeiro embaixador do Brasil na Bélgica.

Temos dois retratos de José Antonio. O primeira é um esboço dele quando jovem; o segundo, datada da década de 1860, mostra-o no auge.

Na fase final de sua vida na década de 1870, José Antonio Moreira compra uma propriedade localizada a cerca de 12 km ao sul do centro da cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Essa área com mais de 3 km de praia de frente para o Atlântico é hoje conhecida como o bairro da Praia de Ipanema.

A propriedade foi comprada em 1878 e inicialmente usada como casa de campo (chacara). Abaixo, uma representação artística da área na década de 1870 pelo pintor Eduardo Camões (n. 1955- ).

O mapa abaixo mostra a propriedade no contexto do Rio de Janeiro atual. A “chacara” se estendia da ponta sul da Praia de Copacabana (delineada pela atual Rua Barão de Ipanema) até o canal que liga o oceano à Lagoa Rodrigo das Freitas e cria a divisão entre os bairros de Ipanema e Leblon. A propriedade se estendia por partes do atual Leblon, incluindo o atual local do clube esportivo Monte-Libano.

O terreno adquirido por José Antonio Moreira era conhecido na época como “Praia de Fora de Copacabana”, que fazia parte de uma área maior chamada “Fazenda Copacabana”. A maior parte da propriedade foi comprada de um empresário francês, Charles Le Blond, dono de uma operação baleeira chamada “Alianca” que detinha o monopólio de abastecimento de óleo de baleia à cidade do Rio de Janeiro.  Le Blond faliu na década de 1860 quando o Visconde de Mauá introduziu iluminação a gás à cidade do Rio de Janeiro, e isso foi o provável motivo pela venda do imóvel. Os vestígios da operação baleeira de Le Blond incluem os nomes dos bairros da Praia do Leblon e da Praia do Arpoador, no ponto mais leste da Praia de Fora. O promontório rochoso que separa a Praia do Arpoador de Copacabana teve um papel importante na operação baleeira como um mirante ideal para detectar grupos de baleias migratórias.

A área era originalmente ocupada por índios tamoios e, brevemente, na década de 1550 o local de um posto militar francês. Conta a história que um antigo governador português erradicou a população indígena, fornecendo-lhes cobertores infectados com varíola (aparentemente uma prática comum no século XVI).

As partes sul e oeste da Fazenda Copacabana também foram amplamente utilizadas para grandes moendas de cana-de-açúcar e pastoreio de gado dos séculos XVI a XIX na área que se estende do Leblon ao Jardim Botânico. A parte leste da Fazenda Copacabana (atual Copacabana e Ipanema) era imprópria para a agricultura por causa do solo arenoso e ácido (restinga) e, no caso de Ipanema, inundações frequentes da lagoa. Uma das poucas construções na  região era a Igreja de Nossa Senhora de Copacabana,  um convento carmelita erguido no início do século XVI. O convento continha uma cópia de uma estátua da Virgem Maria da Igreja de Nossa Senhora de Copacabana às margens do Lago Titicaca, no Peru, que se dizia ter qualidades milagrosas; e daí o nome da praia.

Muito provavelmente, a compra da propriedade da Praia de Fora foi realizada como uma aposta especulativa imobiliária com grandes perspectivas futuras. Empresário de destaque, ligado ao Visconde de Mauá e à administração imperial, o Conde de Ipanema conhecia os planos de desenvolvimento urbano da cidade. No centro dessa visão estava a Companhia Ferro-Carril Jardim Botânico, empreendimento do Visconde de Mauá, que planejava expandir suas trilhas de bondes para as praias do sul do Rio de Janeiro. Com certeza, estava a par da moda europeia em meados do século XIX de frequentar resorts praianos, tornados possível pela expansão de ferrovias e por uma crescente valorização dos benefícios do mar à saúde. Infelizmente, o Conde faleceu em 1879, deixando o futuro desenvolvimento da área nas mãos de seu filho mais velho.

José Antonio Moreira Filho tinha 49 anos quando seu pai faleceu. Parece ter sido um empresário de sucesso por conta propria e muito estimado pela Corte Imperial, tendo sido condecorado em várias ocasiões: Comendador da Ordem Militar de Cristo e da Ordem de Nossa Senhora da Conceição de Vila Vicosa (o prêmio dado pelo soberano por serviços prestados à Casa Real). Recebeu  o baronato por decreto em 1885 e a grandeza por decreto em 1888. Em 1856 casou-se com D. Luiza Rudge (1838-1891), filha de George Rudge e Sofia Maxwell. Seu sogro era Joseph Maxwell (1772-1854), um dos homens mais ricos do Brasil, fundador da casa de corretagem Maxwell Wright, um estabelecimento comercial com fortes ligações aos mercados americano e britânico e um dos principais participantes do boom de exportação do café, assim como um facilitador do comércio do triângulo atlântico (importação de grãos e produtos manufaturados na América, exportação de café, e comércio de escravos da África). Os Rudges eram parceiros de negócios de Joseph Maxwell. As duas familias Rudge e Maxwell eram originalmente comerciantes de Gloucester, Inglaterra. José Antonio Filho e Luiza Rudge tiveram cinco filhos – Carlos, Luiza Sophia, José Jorge, Carlos Alfredo, Laurin Rosa e Sophia, Emília – todos assumiram o sobrenome Ipanema de Moreira e viveram suas vidas no Rio de Janeiro.

Abaixo, o único retrato que temos de José Antonio Filho  feito na década de 1870, antes de se tornar o Barão de Ipanema.

Temos também uma pintura dos dois filhos mais velhos, Carlos e Luiza, posando em uma rede em Ipanema com a Lagoa Rodrigo da Freitas e o Pico da Catacumba ao fundo.

Os planos de José Antonio Moreira Filho para a “Praia de Fora” dependiam da melhoria do acesso às praias do sul. Durante a década de 1880 o acesso à  região era feito por turistas ocasionais principalmente pelo mar. Isso mudou quando, em 1892, a Companhia Ferro-Carril Jardim Botânico inaugurou o Túnel de Copacabana (hoje Alaor Prata), ligando a Praia de Botafogo à Praia de Copacabana e fornecendo serviço de bonde entre o centro do Rio e as praias do sul. Uma linha de bonde cobrindo toda a extensão da praia de Copacabana foi concluída no início de 1894.

Antecipando a ampliação do serviço de bondes, foi oficialmente lançado  em abril de 1894 o projeto de incorporação imobiliária da Vila Ipanema. Os terrenos de Copacabana e Leblon não foram incluídos na Vila Ipanema, e não se sabe se foram doados à prefeitura ou incorporados a outros empreendimentos em promoção na época.

O layout da Vila Ipanema pode ser visto nos dois documentos abaixo. O primeiro, datado de 1894), é o projeto urbanístico original encomendado a Luiz Rafael Vieira Souto, engenheiro-chefe da Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro. O segundo, de 1919, é de um folheto de marketing.

A Vila Ipanema dividiu a área em 45 blocos. Cada bloco padrão era dividido em 40 lotes, cada um medindo 10 metros por 50 metros. Foram lançados no mercado mais de um milhão de m2 de imóveis.

O lançamento inicial incluia 19 ruas e duas praças públicas (General Osório e Nossa Senhora da Paz). A maioria dos nomes das ruas homenageava parentes, associados e aliados políticos do Barão e seus parceiros. Por exemplo, a via principal na época do lançamento era a Rua 20 de Novembro (atual R. Visconde de Pirajá), que comemorava a data de nascimento de D. Luiza Rudge. Dos nomes originais restam poucos: R. Alberto Campos (cunhado) permanece; Avenida Vieira Souto, em homenagem ao urbanista, ainda enfeita a orla.

José Antonio Moreira Filho teve vários sócios na Vila Ipanema: Coronel Antonio José Silva, José Luis Guimarães Caipora e Constante Ramos. O Coronel incorporou o terreno que possuía na Praia de Fora ao projeto Vila Ipanema. Em 1901 os acionistas da Vila Ipanema eram os seguintes: a família Ipanema de Moreira, 90%; E. de Barros, 6,5%; Coronel Silva, 3,5%; Ulisses Vianna, 1,0%.

A sorte de José Antonio Moreira Filho parece ter se esgotado em seus últimos anos. Vila Ipanema foi lançada quando estava com 64 anos e com problemas de saúde. Dada sua intimidade com a corte imperial, a deposição de Pedro II em 1889 e seu exílio em Paris podem ter prejudicado seriamente seus negócios. Certamente, quando o conde adquiriu a propriedade, não havia previsto o fim do regime imperial. A proclamação da Primeira República em 1889 foi seguida de instabilidade política e crise econômica, e a fuga de capital humano e financeiro. Nos cinco anos após o golpe de Estado que derrubou D. Pedro II até o lançamento da Vila Ipanema em 1894, o real, a moeda brasileira, perdeu 60% de seu valor em relação ao dólar americano, e perderia outros 40% até se estabilizar em 1899. A década de 1890 também veria a ascensão de São Paulo como o centro econômico dinâmico do Brasil e o polo de atração para ondas de imigrantes italianos e japoneses.

Em meados da década de 1890 quase toda a família Ipanema de Moreira se instalou na Europa, mais especificamente em Paris ou Bruxelas. O Brasil, por sua vez, se tornou uma memória distante. Com o falecimento do Barão em 1899, o controle majoritário da Vila Ipanema passou para seu filho Francisco Antonio Moreira que residia em Paris, tendo se mudado do Brasil havia 40 anos.

O seguinte relato do filho de Francisco Antonio (sobrinho do barão), Alberto Jorge de Ipanema Moreira, dá um um pouco de cor à história:

“Na primavera de 1898 viajamos para o Rio, meu pai, minha tia e eu. Meu pai e minha tia foram tentar resgatar o que restava de uma fortuna brilhante.  Seu irmão e também procurador, o Barão de Ipanema, estava velho e doente e seus negócios haviam falido. A única coisa que restara eram as imensas terras em Copacabana e a “Praia do Arpoador” agora rebatizada de “Vila Ipanema”. Após a morte do Barão de Ipanema, foi feito um acordo entre seus herdeiros de um lado e meu pai e minha tia do outro, de que as terras que haviam sobrado para venda seriam divididas da seguinte forma: 35% para os herdeiros e 65% para meu pai e minha tia. Embora nascidos no Rio, meu pai, minha tia e minha mãe – ela de descendência inglesa, Rudge por parte de pai e Maxwell por parte de mãe –pouco conheciam o Rio, tendo sido enviados ainda muito jovens para estudar na Inglaterra.  Tinham pouca noção dos ativos que possuiam no Brasil.”

Franciso Antonio Moreira, meu tataravô, era um bon vivant que desfrutava da boa vida entre Paris e Nice. Era casado com D. Maria Tereza Rudge, a segunda filha de Joseph Maxwell. Pressupostamente, ambos eram herdeiros de grandes fortunas. No entanto, parece que eles viveram muito além de seus meios consideráveis. Seu filho Alberto Jorge conta mais:

“Era de se supor que esse acordo familiar seria muito favorável para meus pais. Não foi bem assim; muito pelo contrário, viveram os trinta anos seguintes recebendo apenas migalhas. Este grande capital foi se esvaindo e serviu apenas para cobrir as despesas mais básicas e indispensáveis. Os lotes de Ipanema vendiam mal, e meu pai queria vende-los a qualquer preço. Ele nasceu um grande senhor e não tinha noção de economia. Muito elegante e garboso, gostava muito de esportes, especialmente a cavalo; generoso, extremamente caridoso e de uma retidão incomum, não via o mal em nada e não havia sido educado para administrar uma fortuna”.

Francisco Antonio teve seis filhos: Alberto Jorge (diplomata brasileiro), Maria Luiza minha bisavó que se casou com Eugene Robyns de Schneidauer, diplomata belga, Leonora, Maria Thereza e José. Todos residiram e faleceram na Europa. A primeira foto mostra Francisco Antonio por volta de 1900 em trajes cerimoniais da corte. A segunda é um retrato da família feito em 1929, perto do final de sua vida, com ele sentado no meio, ao lado de sua esposa.

As fotos a seguir mostram a Praia de Ipanema na virada do século 19 e em 1930. Observe como ainda era pouco desenvolvida em 1930, ainda com paisagem de restinga.

As vendas dos lotes da Vila Ipanema ocorreram de forma muito lenta, pois ninguém queria investir naquele “fim de mundo”. Isso se deveu em parte à concorrência de desenvolvedores na Praia de Copacanana, onde haviam muitas ofertas com maior proximidade ao centro da cidade e do transporte público. Além disso, embora Ipanema e Copacabana fossem comercializados como “saudáveis ​​e higiênicos”, Ipanema era assolada por enxames de mosquitos quando a lagoa inundava periodicamente.

As vendas fracas também foram causadas pelo atraso na expansão do serviço de bondes, que chegou à Praça General Osório apenas em 1902. Até o final daquele ano, apenas 112 lotes haviam sido vendidos, o que representava apenas cerca de 6% do estoque disponível.

As despesas de desenvolvimento também sairam fora de controle. As despesas de capital, administrativas e de vendas ainda ocupavam mais de 60% das receitas no início de 1900. Devido aos altos custos de construção, em 1905 passou-se o trabalho de desenvolvimento para uma empreiteira, a Companhia Construtora de Ipanema, que havia feito trabalhos semelhantes em Copacabana e Leblon. Em 1906, esta empresa completou os taludes da lagoa, dando uma solução permanente às inundações.

A tabela abaixo mostra o fluxo de receita de vendas da Vila Ipanema de 1900 a 1930, época em que restavam poucos lotes. Esses números são apresentados em dólares americanos de 2020, ajustados pela inflação e pela depreciação da moeda. O real perdeu metade de seu valor nesse período. O pico das vendas ocorreu entre 1911-1915, período de pujança econômica e valorização do real. A evolução do real de 1984 a 1930 é mostrada no gráfico a seguir.

 

Nesse período de 30 anos, a receita bruta total da Vila Ipanema foi de US$ 15,1 milhões (USD constante em 2020). A receita líquida após todas as despesas foi de US$ 12 milhões, dos quais US$ 6,5 milhões foram para meu tataravô, Antonio Francisco Moreira. Na época de sua morte, em novembro de 1930, restava apenas uma pequena fração desse capital.

É claro que, em retrospecto, é fácil dizer que esse capital foi grosseira e irresponsavelmente dilapidado. Ipanema hoje é um bairro de luxo e um apartamento à beira-mar na Praia de Ipanema pode custar de 3 a 4 milhões de dólares. Inquestionavelmente, a melhor estratégia para um investidor de longo prazo teria sido construir um grande muro ao redor da propriedade e esperar.

No entanto, até as ultimas décadas mais recentes, a realidade é que Ipanema permaneceu um bairro pacato e distante, principalmente se comparado a Copacabana. Foi apenas na década de 1960 que começou a virar  um lugar de moda. Desde a década de 1960, o centro social e cultural do Rio de Janeiro deslocou-se rapidamente para as praias do sul, levando a uma grande valorização imobiliária.

Quando a família de Antônio Carlos (Tom) Jobim se mudou para Ipanema em 1933, foi porque sua mãe, recém divorciada, não tinha condições de morar em um bairro mais abastado. Por esse mesmo motivo, uma onda de imigrantes se estabeleceu ali depois da Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Na década de 1960, a geração de Antonio Carlos Jobim tornou Ipanema famosa com a Bossa Nova. Foi da esplanada do Bar Veloso na Avenida Prudente de Moraes que Jobim avistou a “menina de Ipanema”, Helô Pinheiro, voltando da praia para casa de biquíni, e o resto é história.

Existem milhares de covers da Garota de Ipanema; a mais recente de  Anitta.

Astrud Gilberto Version

Getz Gilberto

Anitta

The Count of Ipanema’s Real Estate Fiasco

History of the Ipanema de Moreira Family

There are two streets in Rio de Janeiro that commemorate the passage of Jose Antonio Moreira. One is the Rua Barao de Ipanema in the neighborhood of Copacabana Beach and the other the Rua Conde de Ipanema in the adjacent Ipanema Beach. Not much has been written about this influential Brazilian entrepreneur and financier of the Portuguese colony under Dom Joao VI and of the empire under Pedro I and Pedro II. Since he happens to be my ancestor, I have  put together a short and sketchy biography which relies on public documents and family archives. His story reflects the modernization of Brazil in the 19th century – from a slavery-manned plantation economy to a modern industrializing nation. It is also a tale of poor timing in real estate speculation and the dissipation of wealth by idle descendants.

The trail of the Ipanema de Moreira family starts in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil in the late 18th century.  Jose Antonio Moreira, the future Count of Ipanema, was born in Sao Paulo, October 23, 1797, the son of Jose Antonio Moreira (Father) and Ana Joaquina de Jesus. The family was of noble origin, from the Braga District of northern Portugal. Moreira is a common name in Portugal, meaning mulberry tree, sometimes associated with the community of “conversos.” (Forced conversion of Jews to the Catholic faith)

Jose Antonio Moreira (father) was a prosperous merchant in Sao Paulo with close links to the colonial administration.  He had a key role in developing Brazil’s first modern industrial enterprise, the Ipanema iron works (Fundicao Ipanema).

Napoleon’s invasion of Portugal caused the Portuguese court of Dom Joao VI to flee to Rio de Janeiro in 1808. Dom Joao VI immediately eliminated all existing mercantilist restrictions on domestic manufacturing and actively supported industrial self-sufficiency. Iron smelting was considered a high priority and an area of with iron deposits in the vicinity of the city of Sao Paulo was chosen as a site for development.

The existence of iron ore deposits on the Ipanema Hills in an area known as the Fazenda Ipanema, nearby the village of Iperó, 125 km northwest of the city of Sao Paulo, had been known since the early days of the Portuguese colony. The site chosen for the iron smelter was located on the Ipanema River, a tributary of the Sorocaba River, and was surrounded by forests which could be used as fuel for smelting. The area had previously been inhabited by Tupi Indians, who had named it “Ipanema,” a reference to a river that has its source there. Ipanema means “stagnant or barren water” in Tupi-Guarani.

The company was established by Royal Charter in December 4, 1810 as a mixed capital shareholder company, with 13 shares belonging to the Portuguese Crown and 47 to private shareholders, businessmen with connections to the court. Jose Antonio probably represented the crown’s interests and was a founding investor. The project was of keen interest to Dom Joao IV who enlisted technical support from Swedish and German specialists, and he is s known to have visited the mill on multiple occasions.

The Fazenda Ipanema Ironworks, known as the Real Fábrica de Ferro de São João de Ipanema, smelted its first iron in 1816 and operated until 1895.  A picture from 1890 is shown below.

The enterprise, which can be considered Brazil’s first modern industrial undertaking, included a dam and a 4-km railroad connecting the iron ore deposits with the plant. The area is now a national park and a popular tourist attraction. The structures of the mill are intact, as shown in the pictures below, and can be visited by the public.

The geographical location of the site is shown in the maps below.

Jose Antonio Moreira, both father and son, were actively involved with the Fundicao Ipanema.  The future Count of Ipanema, who will be referred to as Jose Antonio Moreira from now on, was involved with the Ipanema Fundicao from an early age, and he would remain connected to industrial ventures in metallurgy and metal-working in Brazil’s first wave of industrialization during the imperial regime.

From the time of the Fundicao Ipanema, the Moreira family remained closely tied to the imperial court in Rio de Janeiro. By the early 1820s, Jose Antonio Moreira had settled in Rio De Janeiro where in 1823 he married Laurinda Rosa Ferreira dos Santos, the daughter of a Portuguese merchant from Porto.   She was born in Rio de Janeiro in 1808 and died in Brussels in 1881. They has six children: José Antonio Moreira Filho, the future 2 º Barão de Ipanema (1830-1899); João Antonio Moreira (1831-1900); Joaquim José Moreira (1832-?); Manoel Antônio Moreira (1833-?); Laurinda Rosa Moreira (1837-1920); Mariana Rosa Moreira (1842-?) and Francisco Antônio Moreira (1845-1930). (Francisco Antonio Moreira was my great-great-grandfather.)

Jose Antonio married into one of imperial Rio de Janeiro’s wealthiest families. His father-in-law was Jose Ferreira dos Santos, a highly prominent merchant. Recent research by UCLA history professor William Summerhill reveals that Jose Ferreira Dos Santos was a member of the Junta Administrativa da Caixa de Amortizacao from 1840-46. The members of this parliamentary commission — “national capitalists…and the largest holders of the national debt”  — oversaw the Treasury’s operations to ensure payment of sovereign debt obligations. Jose Antonio himself was to sit on this commission from 1959-1969. During this extended period of prosperity under Emperor Pedro II, both Jose Antonio and his father-in-law were among the largest holders of government bonds, so-called “apolices,” in what was a highly concentrated market. (Summerhill provides a fascinating account of the Empire’s finances in his book Inglorious Revolution. This extended period is unique in Brazilian history for the impeccable creditworthiness of the Brazilian state.)

Jose Antonio’s success as an entrepreneur and financier and his  service to the Imperial Court was recognized on numerous occasions with the highest honors:  Comendador da Imperial Ordem de Cristo and Dignitário da Imperial Ordem da Rosa (Commander of the Order of Christ and Officer of the Imperial Order of the Rose), 1845; Baronato  de Ipanema (Barony), 1847;  Grandezas de Barão de Ipanema (Barony Grandee), 1849; Viscondado com Grandeza  de Ipanema (Viscount Grandee), 1854; and Conde de Ipanema, 1868 (Count).  Jose Antonio’s association with the Ipanema Iron Works and metallurgy are made clear by the choice of the Ipanema name.  (Imperial titles of nobility were awarded on the basis of merit and service to the crown and, generally, were not hereditary.)

The heraldic shields of both the Portuguese Moreiras and the Brazilian Ipanemas are shown below. Notice that both shields have the flourished cross, which in Portugal was the symbol of the Knights of Saint Benedict of Aviz, an order of chivalry founded in 1146. The Ipanema shield also has a blue line with five stars (representing the Ipanema River) and a Caduceu of Hermes (wisdom).

 

In 1844, during the reign of Pedro II (1831-89), Brazil adopted policies to promote industrialization and the import-substitution of manufactured goods , including stiff tariffs of up to 60% on imports.  Prior to this reform, the country had relied extensively on British imports. The policy shift resulted in Brazil’s first wave of industrialization, which had as its leading entrepreneur Irineu Evangelista de Sousa (Visconde de Maua). Jose Antonio Moreira was an early investment partner and adviser to the Visconde de Maua.  It is clear that Jose Antonio put his court connections and expertise in metallurgy to good use over this period, and he coinvested with the Visconde de Maua in steel, shipyard, banking, steamboat and railroad ventures.

Jose Antonio Moreira was the first president of the Banco do Brasil, a Visconde de Maua venture that was crucially important in financing Brazil’s early industrialization and still plays a vital role in Brazil’s economy today.

Interestingly, in the Banco do Brasil’s founding charter documents Jose Antonio is described as a “national businessman involved in the business of ships and national goods” (comercio de navios e generos nacionais).

Jose Antonio also had business partnerships with foreign investors, including steel concerns in Belgium. From the mid-1850s Jose Antonio is connected to Brussels, and in 1860 his wife, Laurinda Rosa Ferreira dos Santos, takes up residence there. From this time, four of their six children are established in Brussels: Manoel Antonio, Marriana-Rosa, Laurinda Rosa and Francisco Antonio Moreira. Manoel remained in Brussels where he served a Brazil’s general consul, and his son, Alfredo de Barros Moreira, would serve as Brazil’s first ambassador to Belgium.

We have two portraits of Jose Antonio. The first is a sketch of him as a young man; the second, dating from the 1860s, shows him in his prime.

It was during the final phase of his life in the 1870s that Jose Antonio Moreira purchased an estate located some 12 km south of the center of the city of Rio de Janeiro. This area with more than 3 km of beaches facing the Atlantic is now known as the Ipanema Beach neighborhood.

The estate was purchased in 1878 and initially it was used as a country house (chacara). An artistic rendition of what the area may have looked like in the 1870s by the painter Eduardo Camoes  (b. 1955- ) is shown below.

The map below shows the estate in the context of today’s Rio de Janeiro. The “chacara” extended from  the southern tip of Copacabana Beach (delineated by the current Rua Barao de Ipanema) to the canal that connects the ocean with the Rodrigo das Freitas Lagoon and creates the division between the neighborhoods of Ipanema and Leblon. The property stretched into parts of modern-day Leblon, including the current site of the Monte-Libano sports club.

 

The land purchased by Jose Antonio Moreira was known at the time as “Praia de Fora de Copacabana,” which was part of a larger area called the “Fazenda Copacabana.” Most of the property was purchased from Charles Le Blond, a French entrepreneur who ran a whaling operation called “Alianca´ and had secured a monopoly on supplying Rio de Janeiro with whale oil. Le Blond went out of business in the 1860s when the Visconde de Maua introduced gas lighting to the city of Rio de Janeiro, and this may have provoked the sale of the property.  Vestiges of Le Blond’s whaling operation include the names of the Leblon Beach neighborhood as well as Arpoador  (Harpooner) Beach at the easternmost point of  Praia de Fora. The rocky promontory which separates Arpoador Beach from Copacabana  played an important part in the whaling operation as an ideal lookout to detect migrating pods of whales.

The area was originally occupied by Tamoia Indians, and, briefly, in the 1550s it was the site of a French military outpost. Reportedly, an early Portuguese governor eradicated the Indian population by furnishing them with blankets infected with smallpox (apparently a common practice in the 16th century).

The southern and western parts of the “Fazenda Copacabana” also were widely used for large sugar cane milling operations and cattle grazing from the 16th to the 19th centuries in the area which stretches from Leblon to the Jardim Botanico. The eastern part of the Fazenda Copacabana (modern day Copacabana and Ipanema) were inappropriate for farming because of sandy, acidic soil (restinga) and, in the case of Ipanema, frequent flooding from the lagoon.  One of the few structures in the area was the Igreja of Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, a Carmelite hermitage founded in the early 16th century. The hermitage had a copy of a statue of the Virgin Mary from the Church of Nossa Senora de Copacabana on the shores of Lake Titicaca in Peru which was said to have miraculous qualities, and that is the source of the name of the beach.

In all likelihood, the purchase of the Praia de Fora estate was made as a farsighted speculative real estate bet. As a prominent businessman with close ties to the Viscount of Maua and the imperial administration, the Count of Ipanema knew the city’s plans for urban development. Central to this vision was the Companhia Ferro-Carril Jardim Botanico, a Viscount of Maua venture, that was planning to expand its tramway coverage to the southern beaches of Rio de Janeiro. Moreover, he was certainly aware of the mid-19th century European boom in beach resorts made possible by railroads and by a newfound appreciation for the health benefits of the sea. Unfortunately, the Count passed away in 1879, leaving the future development of the area in the hands of his eldest son.

 

Jose Antonio Moreira Filho was 49 years old when his father passed away.  He appears to have been a successful businessman in his own right and highly regarded by the Imperial Court, and he was decorated on several occasions:  Commander of the Military Order of Christ and  the  Order of Our Lady of the Conception of Vila Vicosa (the paramount award given by the sovereign for services rendered to the Royal House). He received his baronage by decree in 1885, and the grandeeship by decree in 1888. In 1856 he married Luiza Rudge (1838-1891), daughter of George Rudge and Sofia Maxwell.  His father-in-law was Joseph Maxwell (1772-1854), one of Brazil’s richest men, founder of the Maxwell Wright commission house. This was a trading house with strong links to the American and British markets which was a leading participant in the coffee export boom and a facilitator of the Atlantic triangle trade (imports of grains and manufactured goods from America, exports of coffee and slave trading with Africa). The Rudges were business partners with Joseph Maxwell. Both the  Rudge and Maxwell families were originally merchants from Gloucester, England. Jose Antonio Filho and Luiza Rudge had five children — Carlos, Luiza Sophia, Jose Jorge, Carlos Alfredo, Laurin Rosa  and Sophia, Emilia – all of whom assumed the surname Ipanema de Moreira and lived their lives in Rio de Janeiro.

The only portrait we have of Jose Antonio Filho is the one shown below, made in the 1870s before he had become the Baron of Ipanema.

We also have a painting of the two eldest children Carlos and Luiza posing in a hamac in Ipanema with the  Rodrigo da Freitas Lagoon and the Catacumba Peak in the background.

Jose Antonio Moreira Filho’s plans for “Praia de Fora” depended on improved access to the southern beaches. During the 1880s the estate had been accessed primarily from the sea by occasional tourists. This changed when in 1892 the Companhia Ferro-Carril Jardim Botanico inaugurated the Copacabana Tunnel (today known as Alaor Prata), linking Botafogo Beach with Copacabana Beach, and providing tram service between the center of Rio and the southern beaches. A tram line covering the entire extension of Copacabana beach was completed by early 1894.

In anticipation of the further extension of the tram service, in April 1894 the Vila Ipanema real estate development project was officially launched. The land holdings owned in Copacabana and Leblon were not included in Vila Ipanema, and may have been donated to the city or incorporated into other developments being actively promoted at the time.

The layout of the Vila Ipanema can be seen in the two documents below. The first, dating from 1894, is the original urban design commissioned to Luiz Rafael Vieira Souto who was the Chief Engineer of the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro.  The second, dating from 1919, is from a marketing brochure.

Vila Ipanema divided the area into 45 blocks.  The standard block was broken into 40 lots, each measuring 10 meters by 50 meters. More than a million m2 of real estate were put on the market.

The initial launch included 19 streets and two public squares (General Osorio and Nossa Senhora da Paz). Most of the street names honored family members, associates and political allies of the Baron and his partners. For example, the main road at the time of launch was the Rua 20 de Novembro (Visconde de Piraja), which commemorated the date of birth of Luisa Rudge. Of the original names few remain: Alberto Campos (brother in law) remains; Avenida Vieira Souto, in honor of the urban planner, still graces the waterfront.

Jose Antonio Moreira Filho had several partners in Vila Ipanema: Coronel Antonio Jose Silva, Jose Luis Guimaraes Caipora and Constante Ramos.  The Coronel incorporated land he owned in Praia de Fora into the Vila Ipanema project. In 1901 the shareholders of Vila Ipanema were:  Ipanema de Moreira family, 90%; E. de Barros, 6.5%; Coronel Silva, 3.5%; Ulysses Vianna, 1.0%.

Jose Antonio Moreira Filho’s luck seems to have run out in his final years. He was 64 years old when Vila Ipanema was launched and in bad health. Given his intimacy with the imperial court, the deposition of Pedro II in 1889 and his exile to Paris may have seriously undermined his business affairs. Surely, when the Count acquired the estate he had not countenanced an end to the imperial regime. The proclamation of the First Republic in 1889 was followed by political instability and economic crisis, and the flight of both human and financial capital. In the five years from the time of the coup-d’etat which ousted Pedro II to the launch of Vila Ipanema in 1894, the real, the Brazilian currency, lost 60% of its value relative to the U.S, dollar, and it would lose another 40% before stabilizing in 1899. The 1890s would also see the rise of Sao Paulo as Brazil’s dynamic economic center and the magnet for waves of Italian and Japanese immigrants.

By the mid-1890s almost all of the Ipanema de Moreira family was settled in Europe, either in Paris or Brussels. Brazil was far away and becoming a distant memory. When the Baron passed away in 1899, the majority control of Villa Ipanema went to Francisco Antonio Morreira who resided in Paris and had not lived in Brazil in 40 years.

 

The following account from Francisco Antonio’s son (nephew of the baron), Alberto Jorge de Ipanema Moreira, gives some color:

“In the spring of 1898 we travelled to Rio, my father, my aunt and I. My father and my aunt went to try to salvage what was left of a brilliant fortune. Their brother, the Baron of Ipanema, who was their proxy, was old and sick and his business affairs had collapsed. The only thing left were the immense land holdings in Copacabana and the “Praia do Arpoador’” now renamed “Vila Ipanema.” Following the death of the Baron of Ipanema, an agreement was reached with his heirs on one side and my father and my aunt on the other, that the remaining land for sale would be divided  so that the heirs would keep 35% and my father and my aunt would receive 65%. Though born in Rio, my father,  my aunt and my mother – she of English descent, Rudge by her father and Maxwell by her mother – had spent little time in Rio, having been sent at a young age to study in England. They had little notion of the assets they had in Brazil.”

Franciso Antonio Moreira, my great-great grandfather, was a bon vivant living the high life between Paris and Nice. He was married to Maria Tereza Rudge, the second daughter of Joseph Maxwell, and, presumably they both had inherited large fortunes from their parents. However, it seems that they lived well beyond their considerable means. More on this from his son Alberto Jorge:

“It would seem that this family settlement had been very favorable for my parents. It didn’t turn out that way; quite the contrary, they lived for the next thirty years receiving only crumbs. This great capital withered away, used only to cover the most basic and indispensable expenses. The lots in Ipanema sold poorly, and my father wanted to sell at any price. He was born a great lord, and had no notion of thrift. Very elegant and handsome, he loved sport, especially horses; generous and extremely charitable, of an uncommon righteousness, he saw no evil and was not made to manage a fortune.”

Francisco Antonio had six children: Alberto Jorge (Brazilian diplomat), Maria Luiza (my great grandmother who married Eugene Robyns de Schneidauer who was a Belgian diplomat), Leonora, Maria Thereza and Jose. All of them resided and passed away in Europe. The first photo shows him around 1900 in ceremonial Court regalia. The second photo is a family portrait taken in 1929, near the end of his life, where he is seated next to his wife in the middle, up front.

The following pictures shows Ipanema Beach at the turn of the 19th century and in 1930. Notice how poorly developed it remained in 1930, still marked by the characteristics of the “restinga.”

The sales of the Vila Ipanema lots were painfully slow, as no one wanted to invest in that “fim do mundo.” This was in part because of competition from developers in Copacanana Beach which offered plenty of supply with closer proximity to the city and public transport. Moreover, though both Ipanema and Copacabana were marketed as “healthy and hygienic,” Ipanema was plagued by mosquito swarms when the lagoon periodically overflooded.

Poor sales also were caused by the delayed expansion of the tram service, which reached the General Osorio Square only in 1902. By the end of that year only 112 lots had been sold, which represented only about 6% of the available inventory.

Development expenses also ran out of control. Capital, administrative and selling expenses were still taking up over 60% of revenues in the early 1900s.  High construction costs led to the farming out of development work to a contractor in 1905, the Companhia Constructora de Ipanema, which did similar work in Copacabana and Leblon. In 1906, this company completed the embankments of the lagoon, providing a permanent solution to the flooding.

The table below shows the Vila Ipanema sales revenue stream from 1900 to 1930, by which time very few lots remained. These numbers are presented in 2020 U.S. dollars, adjusting for inflation and currency depreciation. The real lost half of its value over this period. The peak of sales occurred between 1911-1915, a period of economic strength and real appreciation. The evolution of the real from 1984 to 1930 is shown in the following chart.

Over this 30-year period, total Vila Ipanema gross revenues were $15.1 million (constant 2020 USD). Net revenues after all expenses amounted to $12 million, of which $6.5 million went to my great-great grandfather, Antonio Francisco Moreira. By the time of his death in November 1930, a small fraction of that capital remained.

Of course, in retrospect it is easy to say that this capital was grossly and irresponsibly dilapidated. Ipanema today is prime luxury real estate and a beachfront apartment on Ipanema Beach may cost 3 to 4 million dollars. Unquestionably, the best strategy for a long-term investor would have been to build a big wall around the property and wait.

However, the reality is that Ipanema remained a sleepy and distant neighborhood, particularly compared to Copacabana, until recent decades.  It was not until the 1960s that it received some notoriety as a fashionable destination. Since the 1960s, the social and cultural center of Rio de Janeiro has moved rapidly to the southern beaches, leading to huge appreciation in real estate.

When Antônio Carlos Jobim’s family moved to Ipanema in 1933 it was because his mother was recently divorced and could not afford to live in a nice neighborhood. For the same reason, a wave of immigrants settled there after W.W. II.  In the 1960s, Antonio Carlos (Tom) Jobim’s generation made Ipanema famous with the Bossa Nova.  It was from the terrace of the Bar Veloso on the Avenida Prudente de Moraes that Tom spied the “girl from Ipanema”, Helo Pinheiro, walking home bikini-clad from the beach, and the rest is history.

There are thousands of covers of Girl From Ipanema; the most recent from Anitta.

Astrud Gilberto Version

Getz Gilberto

Anitta

 

 

 

The Girl From Ipanema

https://apnews.com/article/anitta-girl-from-ipanema-rio-brazil-bb45163a74e7d47c23a38f09a4cbe1e3